The Guardian sună goarna pentru a avertiza în privinţa pericolului care paşte Europa: scăderea natalităţii.
Across the rest of Germany, Hoyerswerda is regarded as a feral wasteland – complete with wolves. Slinking in from Poland and the Czech Republic, they are finding empty spaces where once there were apartment blocks and mines. And the wolves, at least, are staying. A few kilometres down the road, near the tiny town of Spreewitz, wolf enthusiast Ilka Reinhardt can’t believe his luck: “We have more wolves than we have had in 200 years.” The badlands of former East Germany are going “back to nature”. And Europeans should be worried, for some fear that eastern Germany is, as it was back in the 1960s, a trailblazer for the demographic future of the continent.
Europe’s population is, right now, peaking, after more than six centuries of continuous growth. With each generation reproducing only half its number, this looks like the start of a Âcontinent-wide collapse in numbers. Some predict wipeout by 2100.
…
In Germany, where fertility has been low for more than a generation, demographers report a large decline in the desired family size. “Today, 48% of German men under 40 agree that you can have a happy life without children. When their fathers were asked the same question at the same age, only 15% agreed,” says Europe’s top demographer, Wolfgang Lutz of the Vienna ÂInstitute of Demography. Thirty per cent of German women today say they don’t intend to have children at all.
Once a country has very low fertility for a generation, it begins to run out of young women able to gestate future generations. Germany is there already: it has only half as many children under 10 as adults in their 40s. Demographer Peter McDonald calculates that if Italy gets stuck with recent fertility levels, and fails to top up with foreign migrants, it will lose 86% of its population by the end of the century, falling to 8 million compared with today’s 56 million. Spain will lose 85%, Germany 83% and Greece 74%.
Se pare că în viitor o să fie destul loc pentru toată lumea. Chiar prea mult loc.
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Sursa:
The Guardian, The population crash
muahahahahaha. o sa avem suprapopulare cu natalitate negativa.mda. oricum ar fi o sa murim cu totii si o sa usture rau.
auzi da, asa ca neam prostu’ : e posibil treaba asta sa fie ciclica?sau o sa tina cu obstinatie pana cand ultimul cuplu (adam si eva inversat <> o sa aiba 1 (unu) copil?si se inchide cercul.
eu daca merg spre un zid nu ma c… pe mine de frica ca o sa dau cu capu de zid. ma gandesc ca o sa ma opresc inainte de asta.
În momentul de faţă, nimeni nu are nici o idee. Părerea mea este că sunt şanse bune ca, la un moment dat, natalitatea să înceteze să scadă.
duh…
This is the state of the science at this moment.
e un calcul sumar si jurnalistic. Masoara o viteza instantanee si exrapoleaza dincolo de limitele statistice.
As I said, cam asta e tot ce se poate face acum. Stadiu cercetării demografice nu este foarte avansat. Nu avem date referitoare la o situaţie asemănătoare.